Climate: Have we passed the point of no return?
Climate change is increasingly evident, but it seems that neither people nor government officials care about the climate. But the biggest question of all is whether we are past the point of no return and, because of that, there is nothing to be done and we will have irreversibly changed the world, or whether we still have salvation as a species.
According to a recent study, it is very likely that we have reached the “point of no return” in at least 5 key climate markers.
- The melting of the poles (Arctic and Antarctic).
- The retreat of glaciers.
- The thawing of “permafrost” (land supposedly frozen for eternity).
- The temperature change of ocean currents of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is an important part.
- The inability of the Amazon rainforest to “cleanse” the atmosphere (retain carbon).
The climate inflection
Due to the current climate crisis, the world is on the verge of a global collapse, as several inflection points (points of no return) have passed their threshold and others are on the verge of passing them.
The study on the current state of the climate shows that, so far, five inflection points may have already been passed due to the global warming of 1,1°C caused by humanity.
These include (but are not limited to) the collapse of the Greenland ice caps, eventually producing a massive sea level rise, the collapse of a key stream in the North Atlantic, interrupting the rain that billions of people depend on for food, and a abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
With 1,5°C of warming, the minimum increase now expected, four of the five tipping points move from possible to likely, the analysis said. Also at 1,5°C, five more tipping points are likely to occur, including changes in climate in the vast northern forests and the loss of nearly all of the mountain glaciers.
In total, the researchers found evidence of 16 tipping points, with the final six requiring global warming of at least 2°C to be triggered, according to the scientists' estimates. Tipping points would have an effect on climate on time scales ranging from a few years to centuries.
"Earth may have left a 'safe' climate state beyond 1°C of global warming."
The researchers concluded.
Going through one tipping point often helps trigger others, producing a series of events “like the falling of a chain of dominoes”. But this is still being studied and has not been included in the current study which means that the present analysis may be “optimistic”.
Professor Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who was part of the study team, said:
"The world is heading towards 2-3°C of global warming, which is excessive."
"This puts Earth on a path to cross several dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world."
"To maintain the conditions of life on Earth and allow for stable societies, we must do everything possible to avoid crossing further tipping points."
The Doctor. David Armstrong McKay of the University of Exeter, one of the study's lead authors, said:
“It's really worrying. There are reasons for sadness, but there are also reasons for hope.”
"The study really supports why the Paris agreement target of 1,5°C is so important and must be achieved."
"We're not saying with this, because we're probably going to hit some inflection points, that all is lost and the game is over."
"Every fraction of a degree we stop beyond 1,5°C reduces the likelihood of reaching more tipping points."
Climate research
Recent research has shown signs of destabilization in the Amazon rainforest, the loss of which would have "profound" implications for global climate and biodiversity, as well as for the Greenland ice sheet and the Gulf Stream currents that scientists call the Atlantic meridional circulation (AMOC).
A recent report by the British Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the risk of triggering climate tipping points becomes higher with 2°C of global warming.
The analysis, published in the journal Science, evaluated more than 200 previous studies on past inflection points, climate observations and study projections.
A tipping point is when a temperature threshold is crossed, leading to an irreversible change in a climate system, even if global warming ends.
The nine global tipping points that have been passed, or are at risk of being passed, identified in the study were: the collapse of Greenland, West Antarctica and two parts of the East Antarctic ice sheets, the partial and total collapse of AMOC, the extinction of the Amazon, the collapse of permafrost and the loss of winter sea ice in the Arctic.
The Amazon tipping point assessment did not include the effects of deforestation.
“The combination of warming and deforestation could bring this about much sooner,” said Armstrong McKay.
Another seven tipping points would have serious regional effects, including the extinction of tropical coral reefs and changes in the West African monsoon. Other potential tipping points that are still being studied include the loss of oceanic oxygen and major changes in the Indian summer monsoon.
Scientists define crossing an inflection point as “possible” when its lower temperature threshold is exceeded and “likely” beyond the estimate of the central threshold.
Professor Niklas Boers of the Technical University of Munich said:
"The review, is a timely update on the potential elements of falling Earth, and the threat of falling events, under greater warming, is real."
He added that much more research is needed to lower critical temperature thresholds, with current estimates remaining highly uncertain.
Professor Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern said:
"The science on tipping points is far from over, has barely begun, and much better models are needed to address the question [of] what level of heating is critical for each tipping point."
An IPCC special report on climate hotspots was proposed in May of this year by the Swiss government.
Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter, who co-authored the analysis, said:
"Since I first assessed tipping points in 2008, the list has grown and our assessment of the risk they pose has dramatically increased."
"Our new work provides compelling evidence that the world must radically accelerate the decarbonization of the economy."
“To achieve this, we need to trigger positive social inflection points.”
Conclusion
We cannot continue to hide, nor continue in denial. Global warming is straining extreme weather at an astonishing rate, and this is visible all over the world.
But Afrika is neither neutral nor passive about this and we have published several analyzes and studies on how man-made climate breakdown is accelerating extreme weather events across the planet.
There are people all over the world losing their lives and their livelihoods due to more deadly and more frequent heat waves, floods, forest fires and droughts triggered by the climate crisis.
It's time to say ENOUGH and start doing something to reverse this situation.
What do you think of this climate crisis? Are you one of those who believe that these climate changes are all “bullshit” or are you one of those who prefer to save our environment? We want to know your opinion, do not hesitate to comment and if you liked the article, share and give a “like/like”.
See also:
The world may enter a circle of destruction
Climate: Have we passed the point of no return?
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