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UN report: End of the World is already in 2025.

The UN report is quite clear. Climate change has accelerated " abnormal " natural phenomena, such as the melting of polar ice and glaciers, previously considered "eternal".

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If we continue along this path, in 2025, we will reach the climatic point of no return, from which life on earth will be unsustainable for any living being, including us humans.

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can guarantee a habitable future. We have the tools and the know-how necessary to limit warming.”

"Said the head of the IPCC , Hoesung Lee."

Governments agreed in the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global warming to 1,5°C later this century to avoid a climate catastrophe.

However, many experts say this will require drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and for that, it is necessary to create a range of fundamental policies and laws, to improve energy efficiency, reduce deforestation rates and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy.

The report

Image © DR (20230819) The End of the World is already in 2025, says UN report According to report 2.800-page report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published a few days ago, greenhouse gas emissions will reach the point of no return in 2025, making the future uninhabitable.

Humanity has less than three years to stop the increase in pollution that warms the planet, to avoid its extinction. Without immediate and profound reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, limiting global warming to 1,5°C (Paris Agreement Value) is completely out of reach.

In the scenarios evaluated by the panel, limiting warming to around 1,5°C requires that global greenhouse gas emissions reach their highest point by 2025 at the latest, and from there they will have to be reduced, in the by 43% by 2030. Likewise, methane would also need to be reduced by about a third.

Between 2010-2019, average annual global greenhouse gas emissions reached the highest levels in human history. Human-induced climate change is causing widespread and dangerous disruption to nature and is affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, the report says.

People and ecosystems least able to deal with it will be hardest hit. The increase in heat waves, droughts and floods is already exceeding the tolerance limits of plants and animals, causing mass mortality in species such as trees and corals.

Climate Extremes

These weather extremes are occurring simultaneously, causing cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to deal with. They have exposed millions of people to acute food and water insecurity, especially in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, on small islands and in the Arctic.

To avoid the increasing loss of life, biodiversity and infrastructure, urgent, ambitious and accelerated actions are needed to adapt to climate change, while making quick and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Record concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the associated accumulated heat, have propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations.

This report further concluded that the last seven years are on track to be the seven warmest years ever recorded in human history. Global sea level rise has accelerated since 2013 to a new record in 2021 as the oceans continue to warm and acidify.

The report combines information from various United Nations agencies, national meteorological and hydrological services, and scientific experts.

It also highlights the impacts on food security and population displacement, harming crucial ecosystems and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

How to keep the world habitable?

The burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have warmed the Earth's surface by 1,1°C above existing levels at the end of the 2015th century, in order to try to prevent this Global Warming, nations around the world, under the Agreement of Paris 2 to limit global warming to 1,5°C, or at least 2050°C, by XNUMX.

Reduce emissions by 2025

Drastically and rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions beyond the promises made in the Paris Accord seems to be the only solution. According to the report, if current carbon reduction policies are maintained, the planet will warm by 3,2°C by 2050, causing unavoidable global warming.

Even if global warming is only 2°C, the climate will become " extremely challenging ," so annual emissions would need to decrease by 1,5 billion tons of CO2 or equivalent gases every year until 2050 for there to be any chance of a reversal.

Subsistence on fossil fuel energy

According to the report, if the current oil, gas and coal energy infrastructure continues to emit the same polluting emissions, it will be impossible to limit global warming to 1,5°C.

Limiting the global temperature rise to at least 2°C would mean that 30% of oil, 50% of gas and 80% of coal reserves cannot be burned unless the technology used is capable of capturing and storing the released CO2.

Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies could reduce emissions by up to 10% by 2030, while freeing up money to build cleaner public transport.

Clean energy

By 2050, the world must transition to a “zero” global economy in which almost all energy – not just electricity – comes from non-polluting sources to maintain the temperature targets agreed in Paris.

Global wind capacity grew by 70%, while solar photovoltaic (PV) increased by 170% from 2015 to 2019. But solar and wind together only accounted for 8% of total electricity generation in 2019, which is clearly in short supply. .

Together, low or zero carbon electricity generation technologies – including nuclear and hydroelectric power – produced just 37% of global electricity. The rest came from fossil fuels, especially coal.

Reduce energy demand

Also, according to the report, so-called demand-side strategies – plant-based diets, electric vehicles, car-free mobility, telecommuting, energy-efficient buildings, improved energy efficiency, fewer long-haul flights – can reduce CO2 emissions. by 40-70% by 2050.

Reduce methane production

The report also warns that the potent methane gas – 21 times more polluting than CO2 over a 100-year period – is responsible for nearly 20% of global warming.

A third of these gases in 2019 were produced by fossil fuels, but they are also generated by livestock (cows and sheep) and landfills, and there are also natural sources of methane production.

To limit warming to 1,5°C or even 2°C, methane emissions – which have been steadily increasing – will need to drop by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels.

Remove CO2 from the air

Even under optimistic emissions scenarios, several billion tonnes of CO2 will need to be extracted from the atmosphere each year by 2050, with a cumulative total of hundreds of billions of tonnes by 2100.

Strategies ranging from planting trees to machines that chemically extract CO2 from the air will compensate for sectors of the economy that are unlikely to be able to decarbonize by 2050, such as aviation, heavy vehicle transport and, of course, cement.

Conclusion

Taking action is expensive, but…

Limiting global warming to 1,5°C without crossing the mark by a wide margin will require investing around $2,3 trillion a year in the electricity sector from 2020 to 2050.

In 2021, around $750 billion was spent on clean energy and efficiency technologies worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, in general, the investment in CO2 reduction is short or practically nil.

On the other hand, the richest nations, which have the potential for more, are spending just two to five times less than what is needed to lower pollution rates, while in poor countries, in developing and emerging countries, investment is between 1,6 billion and 3,2 billion dollars a year, which is clearly not much.

…doing nothing is even more expensive.

The path to clean-up can be expensive, but the benefits of the necessary means that are likely to limit warming to 2°C far outweigh the costs of clean-up throughout the 21st century.

The economic benefits of reducing air pollution – which causes an estimated seven million premature deaths each year – would be “of the same order of magnitude” or potentially even greater than the costs of reducing pollutant emissions.

Providing universal access to clean energy services – decreasing global greenhouse gas emissions – in addition to creating new alternatives for work, will also bring huge improvements in the quality of life and that good is priceless.

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UN report: End of the World is already in 2025