Russia Strengthens Presence in North Africa.
The recent visit of the Russian Foreign Minister to North Africa coincided with growing dissatisfaction towards the West in the region. While Sergei Lavrov was conducting meetings in Tunisia, large green billboards promoting Russia Today, one of the Kremlin-backed media outlets, appeared nearby.
This Russian expansion in North Africa reflects a move away from support for Western powers, especially in the face of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
The Rise of Russia
North African countries such as Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia have historically maintained complex but close relationships with the European Union due to trade ties and significant diasporas in Western Europe.
However, data from the Arab Barometer indicates a 30 percentage point drop in the popularity of the United States of America (USA) after the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. France's image was also affected.
In the vacuum left by the declining popularity of Western powers, Russia has intensified its efforts to strengthen ties with North Africa, spreading its narrative on issues such as Ukraine and Gaza. Visits by Russian officials, trade agreements and joint memorandums covering topics from Ukraine to Syria have been frequent.
Minister Lavrov, during the Arab-Russian Cooperation Forum in Marrakech, stated:
“It becomes clear that some external forces are not averse to using the next escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for their own interests, to ignite the fire of a regional war.”
Lavrov, on his tour of North Africa, expressed concerns about external pressure, announcing efforts to expand energy and agricultural trade with the region. He contrasted Russian positions with those of the US in the Middle East, stating:
“We have the impression that our Western colleagues are not very willing to create a Palestinian state.”
The Arab-Russian Cooperation Forum took place before the Israel-Hamas conflict, providing Lavrov with a useful platform to position Russia alongside Arab countries ahead of a UN vote on a Gaza humanitarian aid resolution.
Strategic Moment
With Russia Today's recent expansion into Algeria, Minister Lavrov found support in Morocco, culminating in a joint statement expressing solidarity with the Palestinians. The statement, in line with Russian policy, also supported Syria's “sovereignty” and encouraged efforts to “create conditions for a political solution to the crisis” in Ukraine.
Even though they are historically closer to the USA and NATO/NATO, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria have sought to maintain neutral ties with Russia, even during the war in Ukraine and the recent Israel-Hamas conflict.
Olga Oliker, director of the Europe and Central Asia Program at the International Crisis Group, highlighted:
“Moscow hopes that frustration with the US and European countries will work to its advantage in other regions.”
North Africa is a crucial trading partner for both Europe and Russia. Morocco imports fuel and fertilizers from Russia, Tunisia has become more dependent on Russian wheat imports, and Algeria, with one of the largest military forces in Africa, receives a substantial supply of weapons from Moscow.
With the increase in imports of Russian diesel by Morocco and Algeria since the start of the war in Ukraine, these countries are also taking advantage of new energy demands from Europe, which is trying to detach itself from Russian gas.
Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher on Russian foreign policy at the International Center for Defense and Security in Estonia, explained that Russia's stance towards North Africa is in line with its broader agenda of asserting itself as a great power and giving global reach to Russia. its foreign policy.
Conclusion
Russia, by strengthening its presence in North Africa, capitalizes on changing alliances and seeks to consolidate its geopolitical influence. While countries in the region respond strategically to events on the global stage, the complexity of geopolitical relations is shaped like a chessboard, where each move has significant implications.
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Picture: © 2023 Slim Abid
