The political crisis in Guinea-Bissau reaches a new level with the symbolic end of Umaro Sissoco Embaló's presidential term, contested by the opposition. The parliament, dissolved in December 2023, remains the epicenter of the impasse, while ECOWAS seeks to prevent institutional collapse.

Fernando Dias da Costa, first vice-president of the National Assembly, criticized the " arrogance of the authorities " after a meeting with regional mediators. " Dialogue must include all active forces, without arrogance ," he declared, referring to the massive security presence on the streets of Bissau.

The opposition, led by the PAI-Terra Ranka coalition, demands elections by May and accuses Embaló of governing " by decree ." The National People's Assembly (ANP), however, remains inoperative, exacerbating judicial dysfunction and corruption. ECOWAS, which mediated crises in Mali and Burkina Faso, faces the challenge of reconciling the irreconcilable parties.

"The international community cannot be passive," warned a diplomat in Bissau.

The institutional crisis in Guinea-Bissau began in December 2023, when Umaro Sissoco Embaló dissolved parliament and dismissed the government of Terra Ranka. The justification of a " serious institutional crisis " was rejected by the opposition, which classified the act as a "parliamentary coup".

Domingos Simões Pereira, leader of the dissolved National Assembly, denounced: “ Embaló governs by decree, ignoring the popular will .” The measure, considered unconstitutional, has left the country without a legislative body for seven months.

The President insists that his term ends only in September, citing a controversial interpretation of the 2019 judicial calendar. The opposition claims that " the constitutional deadline expired today ," demanding immediate elections. ECOWAS proposes presidential and legislative elections for November 30th. Nuno Nabiam, coordinator of the Inclusive Patriotic Alliance (API), counters:

“Without credible institutions, there are no free elections.”

The streets of Bissau were occupied by security forces this Wednesday, the day the opposition marks the end of Embaló's term. " This arrogance only increases the tension ," criticized Dias da Costa, calling for the symbolic disarmament of the authorities.

The dissolved National Assembly suggests that the Permanent Commission lead inclusive negotiations. " It would be a dialogue with civil society and political parties ," explained the legal expert, highlighting the need to resolve the vacancies in the National Electoral Commission and the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, the ECOWAS mission, headed by Bagudu Hirse, met with Embaló and opposition leaders.

"The region will not tolerate instability," warned a mediator, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Guinea-Bissau is heading towards a political abyss, with institutions paralyzed and a president accused of governing outside the law. Despite its efforts, ECOWAS has yet to bring the parties together, while the population suffers from judicial dysfunction and endemic corruption. Without credible elections or institutional reforms, the risk of collapse remains.

"International silence is complicit," lamented an activist in Bissau.