Sahel: France Leaves, Russia Enters.

The withdrawal of French military forces from the Sahel, in particular from Niger, was a huge setback for President Macron who clearly aimed to establish a new relationship with African countries and marks a turning point in geopolitical relations in the region by turning on the spotlight on the efforts to expand the influence of other global powers.

President Emmanuel Macron faces a political dilemma as France abandons its military presence in the face of growing instability in West Africa. This withdrawal creates a significant opportunity for Russia, which, through the Wagner paramilitary group, seeks to fill the vacuum left by France, signaling a shift in power dynamics in the region.

In 1978, during the Plenary of the OAU Summit, the late Dr. António Agostinho Neto said in your speech:

“Africa seems like an inert body where every vulture comes to peck its piece.”

To this day, no one has been so prophetic.

The New African Geopolitics

The end of the Barkhane operation, in November 2022, and the military coups in several African countries accelerated the French withdrawal, at the same time that the jihadist presence persists in the Sahel and Russia, through the Wagner paramilitary group, extends its tentacles – despite the participation of other actors such as the United States and China.

“We are not here to remain in the hands of scammers. Scammers are allies of disorder.”

A disappointed Emmanuel Macron lamented when he announced on television the withdrawal of French diplomatic representation from Niger, as well as the military forces present in two bases.

“I’m very worried about this region.”

The French president stated, indicating that the attacks by Islamist groups were causing “dozens of deaths every day in Mali” after the coup d'état, and that now these attacks have resumed in Niger.

“France, sometimes alone, shouldered all its responsibilities, and I am proud of our military. But we are not responsible for the political life of these countries, and we assume all the consequences”, he said.

For Macron, this represents a clear political defeat. Earlier this year, he had announced a new military cooperation policy in Africa, but the project to reshape the French presence in the Sahel appears compromised after three countries demanded the withdrawal of French troops.

African instability in the Sahel

Researcher Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), stated that:

“France did not know how to withdraw at the right time and wanted to continue playing the role of leader, in a context in which the sociological environment changed considerably”.

A diplomatic source who asked not to be identified also told the French agency that Paris was reaping the consequences of a “will hypermilitarize the relationship with Africa“, at a time when the most pressing crises on the continent involved security, poverty and the environment.

“Mali was a big blow, we knew we were facing an important trend. We have seen this wave increase for years.”

“France felt it was losing its position, but remained in denial and stunned,” he said.

Political instability has been a feature of life in many African countries in recent years, particularly in the Sahel region, with a series of coups d'état and attempted coups in several nations.

The factors that led to the abrupt end of the established order are diverse, but, in general, the tendency is that the former colonizer is withdrawing while other actors seek to fill the vacuum.

Russia, through the mercenaries of the private military company Wagner, presents itself as the country best suited to fill this void. They are already present in several African countries, including the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, Libya, Mozambique and Madagascar, according to the GIS think tank.

However, so far, experts do not see a Russian hand in Burkina Faso and Niger. In addition to direct tactics, such as blocking resolutions of the ONU which condemn human rights violations by African regimes and interference in elections, Russia is also involved in arms trading deals in exchange for natural resources.

Redefining the French Presence in the Sahel

With the withdrawal of French forces from Mali, the Central African Republic and Burkina Faso, French forces remain in Chad, where Paris maintains an air base and counterterrorism headquarters in Jamena. However, the presence of the thousand French troops was also the target of protests in Chad.

Outside the Sahel, French troops are present in Djibouti, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Gabon, but it is likely that due to the most recent events, the situation will change.

“For now, there is no place where there are specific risks. However, it is certain that the legitimacy of the French military presence in Africa is currently almost nil”.

Commented Thierry Vircoulon, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). This expert believes that there may be an announcement of a broader reduction, or even the closure, of French military bases in Africa.

Russia, through its activities in the region, is gaining ground and increasing its influence, taking advantage of the opportunities created by France's withdrawal. This raises questions about the future of the Sahel and Africa, as new actors enter the scene and old ones leave the stage.

“Hands off Africa! Stop suffocating Africa: it is not a mine to be explored, nor a land to be plundered” – Pope Francis

Russian cooperation

It should not be forgotten that despite the international sanctions imposed on Moscow due to the conflict in Ukraine and the economic blockade, Russia continues to supply grain and food to many African countries, especially the Sahel region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized the importance of maintaining this presence and continuing to provide supplies for the socio-economic development and political stability of African states.

During the Second Russia-Africa Meeting, held this year 2023 in Saint Petersburg, he promised to increase cooperation with African countries in sectors such as energy, medicine and education, among others, demonstrating Russia's desire to strengthen its ties with the African continent.

Conclusion

The French withdrawal from Niger and other areas of the Sahel highlights the complex geopolitical transformations underway on the African continent.

While Emmanuel Macron laments this withdrawal as a political defeat, the expansion of Russian activities in the region, despite geopolitical challenges and international sanctions, suggests that Russia is determined to play a prominent role in the African landscape.

However, uncertainty about the future of the Sahel persists, as new actors compete for influence in the region. The outcome of these developments will have significant implications for stability and the balance of power in West Africa.

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See also:

Former French Colonies: The Coups D’état

The Future of Peace and Stability in the Sahel

Picture: © DR