The G7 Summit kicked off today in Kananaskis, Canada, with a dense cloud of uncertainty hanging over the world's seven most developed economies. The widespread war in the Middle East, the persistent conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and Donald Trump's return to the international stage as US President are the central elements of a busy and tense agenda.

This meeting marks the first time in Trump's new term that G7 leaders have met collectively to confront the impact of the "America First" strategy, which threatens to plunge the global economy into recession and further entrench global conflicts.

Between restrained diplomacy, side meetings, and topics omitted due to political pressure, the summit reveals both the weaknesses and the urgency of a cohesive global leadership. The presence of invited leaders from outside the group, such as the presidents of Brazil, South Korea, South Africa, Mexico, and the prime minister of India, gives this summit a broader scope and additional complexity.

With diverse interests and a multitude of simultaneous crises, the eyes of the world are on Kananaskis to see to what extent the G7 can still be an effective forum for global leadership.

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Donald Trump's return to the G7 inevitably raises comparisons with the 2018 Charlevoix summit, when he left prematurely, insulting then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and withdrew the US signature from the final communiqué. This recent memory haunts the current meeting, where new host Mark Carney is trying to avoid public divisions.

Carney, former governor of the Bank of England and newly elected Canadian prime minister, assumed the rotating presidency of the G7. Aware of precedents, and particularly of Trump's recent stance on integrating Canada into the US, he may even forgo a joint statement if he fears that negotiating it could lead to further divisions.

In deference to Trump, the climate crisis was removed from the summit's agenda. This decision is emblematic of a dynamic of appeasement, in which G7 leaders attempt, on the one hand, to persuade Trump to moderate his positions and, on the other, to avoid public confrontations that could provoke an untimely reaction from the American president.

The strategy of the six other members—Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan—is delicate: challenging Trump without appearing to be uniting against him. It's an unstable balance, with the world hanging in the balance.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is also attending the summit as a guest and has immediately expressed his intention to meet with Trump on the sidelines. This is the first time the two leaders have met since the collapse of the Istanbul truce between Ukraine and Russia.

Zelensky is trying to convince Trump to toughen his stance against Moscow, particularly through new sanctions, but he faces a barrier: American reluctance to take further steps against Vladimir Putin. The European proposal to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel will be another test of Trump's willingness to tighten economic pressure on Russia.

This year's summit has been expanded with invitations extended to leaders of emerging and strategic countries. In addition to Zelensky, the following will also participate: Cláudia Sheinbaum (Mexico), Narendra Modi (India), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Brazil), Anthony Albanese (Australia), Lee Jae-myung (South Korea), and Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa).

Modi's presence is particularly significant given the recent tension between India and Canada. Carney's decision to invite him suggests an attempt to rebuild bridges, also expanding the summit's diplomatic reach beyond the traditional West.

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At the heart of the summit is the escalation in the Middle East. Israel launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities in the early hours of Friday, followed by successive retaliatory strikes from Tehran against Israeli cities.

Trump, accused of giving Israel the "green light" to attack before the end of Omani-mediated negotiations between his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is now facing pressure from European allies.

They seek to understand the reasons behind the unilateral Israeli attack, at a time when negotiations were seen as the only diplomatic way to avoid conflict.

The negotiations in Oman between the US and Iran, brokered outside the G7 and with Europe excluded, were seen as a rare hope for containing the escalation between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Their interruption, days before the summit, alarmed European diplomats.

Europe believes that the recent censure of Iran by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), led by European countries, provided Israel with the necessary pretext for the attack. Iran, for its part, sees the vote as a provocative move that blocked diplomacy and pushed the region to the brink of an abyss.

According to former US special envoy for Iran Richard Nephew, the Israeli attack on the Fordow enrichment center did not completely destroy the centrifuges or the 60% enriched uranium reserve. If this material is still available and the centrifuges are operational, Iran could rebuild a military nuclear program within weeks.

The lack of an agreement has led G7 leaders to assess how close Israel might be to permanently destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities. The possibility that Iran, under internal pressure, might actually decide to pursue a fully fledged military nuclear program is being discussed with growing concern.

But enriching uranium isn't enough. To manufacture a nuclear weapon, Iran needs additional equipment to transform the material, mold it, and assemble the device. Doing so in the midst of a war will be complex, but domestic pressure is growing. Protesters and politicians are already openly calling for the country to opt for nuclear weapons in response to the attacks.

The only point of possible consensus among G7 leaders may be the formulation of a common strategy toward China. There is agreement on ensuring secure supply chains for critical minerals and limiting strategic dependencies, but so far, Trump's position remains unpredictable.