Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) share a vast land, sea and river border, and the intensification of the armed conflict in the DRC could lead to an increasing flow of forced migrants to Angola.

The geographical proximity between the two countries and their shared vast border facilitate the mobility of Congolese citizens fleeing violence and instability in their own country. However, this reality poses significant challenges for Angola, both from an economic, health, and security perspective.

With clashes between the Congolese army and M23 rebels reaching alarming levels, the humanitarian crisis in eastern DRC is worsening. According to analysts, the increase in violence could lead to an unprecedented number of refugees seeking refuge in Angolan territory.

“Every war has consequences and one of them is people’s mobility.”

“Because we share this extensive border, the likelihood of us dealing with refugee flows from the DRC is greater”.

Tiago Armando, an international relations specialist, also noted the economic pressure this migratory flow could place on the country, raising concerns about the spread of disease. Angola is already facing a cholera outbreak, and the arrival of refugees from areas with epidemics could further complicate the health situation.

The Angolan government, through President João Lourenço, has sought to intervene diplomatically to mediate the conflict and prevent the crisis from worsening.

Political scientist David Sambongo noted that the extensive border that Angola shares with the DRC is likely to be an escape route for thousands of Congolese citizens fleeing the conflicts in that region.

"Whenever there is armed conflict or instability in the DRC, the tendency is for Congolese citizens to come to our territory to seek refuge or even invade from the point of view of forced emigration.".

The impact of this mass displacement could have considerable economic repercussions for Angola, a country already struggling to meet the needs of its own population.

Recent history shows that this phenomenon is not new. In 2017, violence in the Congolese Kasai region forced approximately 39 refugees to cross the border into Angola, overwhelming reception facilities in Lunda Norte province.

The current situation in eastern DRC, however, could be even more serious, given the magnitude of the M23 offensive and the deteriorating security conditions.

Beyond economic issues, there are also health implications. The cholera and Mpox epidemics in the DRC pose a risk to Angola, as the movement of people between the two countries can accelerate the spread of these diseases.

“If decisive action is not taken, it will not just be bullets that claim lives – it will be the uncontrolled spread of major outbreaks and potential pandemics.”.

Jean Kaseya, director of the Africa CDC, said that even before the most recent violence, extreme conditions, combined with insecurity and mass displacement, fueled the mutation of the Mpox virus in the DRC.

Nelson Euclides, an activist living in Moxico, argues that “the Government must act urgently, especially in the Lundas region”, suggesting an increase in troop presence and the use of technology for surveillance.

“The use of drones and monitoring systems could help prevent infiltration by armed groups”, he added.

On the other hand, Faustino Henriques, journalist and specialist in international relations, downplays the immediate risk to Angola, arguing that “the conflict in northeastern DRC is taking place far from Angola's borders”. Between the conflict zone and Angola there are several Congolese provinces that function as a kind of “geographic shield”, which can reduce the threat of direct migrations.

Regardless of the Angolan government's stance, growing migratory pressure and health concerns are unavoidable issues. Strengthening border security should not be limited to preventing potential military threats, but also to containing uncontrolled refugee flows and combating irregular immigration.

Tensions between Kinshasa and Kigali have escalated in recent weeks, with the Congolese government accusing Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebels. Rwanda, for its part, denies any direct military involvement, claiming that its presence in eastern DRC is aimed at neutralizing armed groups that threaten its security.

The worsening situation led the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the East African Community (EAC) to convene an emergency meeting to address the crisis. The summit, held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, was attended by several heads of state, including Félix Tshisekedi and Paul Kagame.

Angolan diplomacy has sought to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-scale regional war. However, the reality on the ground indicates that the situation could get worse before it gets better, which could result in increased pressure on Angola in terms of refugees and border security.

Angolan diplomacy continues to focus on a peaceful solution to the conflict, but developments in eastern DRC indicate that the problem is far from resolved. As long as instability persists, migratory pressure on Angola will continue to increase, requiring urgent measures to ensure the safety and well-being of the Angolan population and refugees seeking refuge in the country.

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