Climate change poses a serious threat to the development of Guinea-Bissau, as highlighted by the recent World Bank reportThis document analyzes, for the first time, the direct impact of climate change on essential areas of the country, such as agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure, highlighting the need for urgent measures to protect the economy and the most vulnerable populations.

With the highest natural capital per capita in West Africa, Guinea-Bissau is a country distinguished by its natural wealth. This heritage includes precious ecosystems, such as the mangrove forests and the Bijagós Archipelago, vital to the environment and the livelihood of local communities.

But despite possessing significant potential for sustainable growth, the country faces critical obstacles, such as high poverty rates and political instability, which increase Guinea-Bissau's vulnerability to the devastating effects of climate change.

Agriculture in Guinea-Bissau represents one of the main sources of livelihood for the majority of the population and is particularly exposed to climate change.

According to the Minister of Economy, Planning and Regional Integration, Soares Sambú, rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts directly threaten agricultural production, particularly in the country's inland regions.

This reality compromises food security and exacerbates rural poverty in a country where a large part of the economy is dependent on the agricultural sector. Cashew nuts, which account for about 90% of the country's exports, are a critical example of dependence on a single agricultural commodity and expose the economy to serious risks, both climatic and market-related.

This dependence exposes the Guinean economy to high risks, as climate volatility can lead to a decline in cashew production, significantly affecting national income.

“Economic dependence on a single export product like cashew nuts exposes the economy to external risks.”

Minister Soares Sambú stated during the presentation of the report.

The report also points out that Guinea-Bissau currently has natural resources that could be used for sustainable growth, but if nothing is done in the area of adaptation to climate change, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita will fall by 7,3% by 2050.

In addition to agriculture, fisheries, another sector crucial to the country's economy and food security, are also threatened by climate change. Rising sea levels and the degradation of marine ecosystems put fishing communities at risk, especially in coastal areas.

The World Bank representative in Guinea-Bissau, Rosa Brito, highlighted that, despite its significant natural capital, the country faces high vulnerability to climate change, which is already directly affecting coastal communities and those who depend on agriculture and fishing for their livelihoods.

The Bijagós archipelago, for example, is a fundamental ecosystem for biodiversity conservation and is also essential for the livelihoods of local communities. However, rising sea levels and climate change threaten the sustainability of these natural habitats, jeopardizing both biodiversity and the economic sustainability of local communities.

Another critical aspect addressed by the report is the fragility of Guinea-Bissau's infrastructure. In response to extreme weather events such as floods and droughts, it is essential to build infrastructure better prepared to withstand these adversities.

The report suggests that improving transportation, energy, and water supply infrastructure could increase the country's ability to address climate change and improve the population's quality of life.

Soares Sambú reinforced the importance of investing in this sector, warning that:

“Building infrastructure prepared to face extreme climate change is essential to protect communities and promote development.”

Rising temperatures and long periods of drought could contribute to a reduction in Guinean GDP of up to 4,1% by 2050, the report notes, which also states that rural poverty is likely to increase while the country's infrastructure, education and health systems remain underdeveloped.

To address the challenges of climate change, Guinea-Bissau relies heavily on external financing. Although the country has “mitigation ambitions” which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030, faces financial constraints that hinder the implementation of effective policies to combat climate change.

The World Bank report emphasizes that the “political instability, institutional weaknesses and limited financial resources” represent considerable obstacles to advancing climate goals.

Soares Sambú therefore appealed to international partners to continue supporting the country in implementing the priorities identified in the report. One of the suggested strategies includes the adoption of sustainable agricultural and fishing practices, in addition to the protection of natural resources.

These practices could not only reduce emissions, but also ensure the preservation of Guinea's natural capital, which is essential for safer and more stable development.

The report also highlights that strengthening governance and creating a favorable investment environment are essential to increasing Guinea-Bissau's capacity to respond to climate challenges. Rosa Brito explained that:

"To promote positive transformations and secure growth, it is essential to align the objectives of sustainable development with the fight against climate change."

This alignment requires an integrated approach that combines improvements in governance, economic diversification, and natural resource conservation. To address the climate crisis, the report recommends a strategic framework that promotes climate-friendly agricultural practices, forest conservation, and renewable energy.

With more robust socioeconomic growth, Guinea-Bissau will be better prepared to protect itself against the impacts of climate change, thus ensuring long-term development.

Climate change poses urgent and complex challenges for Guinea-Bissau, with direct impacts on agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure. Despite possessing the largest natural capital per capita in West Africa, the country faces serious limitations that hinder the implementation of effective climate change adaptation measures.

Dependence on a single export product and high poverty rates increase economic vulnerability, making the country more susceptible to the consequences of the climate crisis. The World Bank report offers a strategic framework that emphasizes the importance of an integrated response based on political stability, institutional strengthening, and external financial support.

With a commitment to achieving a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, Guinea-Bissau requires sustainable socioeconomic development that protects the most vulnerable communities and conserves its natural resources.

The success of this effort will depend on international cooperation and local determination to adopt sustainable practices, ensuring a safer future for the country and future generations.