Africa is increasingly the center of disputes between world powers, particularly China and Russia. Both have increased their presence on the continent, but with distinct approaches.

Russia seeks to create instability as a strategy to weaken the southern flank of the European Union and NATO, while China focuses on securing its economic interests, especially through the extraction of natural resources.

These differences were highlighted by João Gomes Cravinho, the European Union's Special Representative for the Sahel, who took office on 1 December 2024.

“China and Russia shouldn't be lumped together when talking about relations with Africa”, stated.

In an interview with Lusa, Cravinho analyzed the impact of these presences and the consequences of their strategies for regional stability.

With concrete examples, such as Chinese investment in the Niger-Benin oil pipeline and growing Russian influence in countries that left ECOWAS, Cravinho showed how these powers shape Africa's future, each in their own way.

Despite the difficulties imposed by the July 2023 coup d'état in Niger, which deteriorated relations with Benin and led to the closure of the common border, China acted as a mediator to ensure that the pipeline could operate normally.

“China has spent a lot of time and energy mediating to create conditions to finally improve relations between Benin and Niger, so that it can extract its oil.”

“They were successful, in a way, because they were able to convince both parties to allow the pipeline to operate,” said Cravinho.

He stressed that for Beijing, the operation of the pipeline was more important than political or human issues, demonstrating a hands-off approach. unscrupulous about the quality of the regimes.

For example, before the coup, China had good relations with the deposed government in Niger. However, it quickly adapted to the new military regime, demonstrating agnosticism regarding governance. For Beijing, the focus is always on economic results.

“What they want is for oil to be transported from the oil fields to the coast.”

“If the borders are closed, if there is no passage of people or goods, that is already something that matters little.”, emphasized the European representative.

“Russia is interested in creating a zone of instability on what it considers to be the southern flank of the European Union and, above all, the southern flank of NATO.”, said Cravinho.

Since its inception in the region, Russia has established itself primarily in Mali, Burkina Faso, and, more recently, Niger. However, Russia's strategy has shown limitations. Despite its increased influence in countries that have left ECOWAS, its military action has been ineffective.

In Mali, where the Russian presence is strongest, the initial goal of reconquering territories was abandoned in favor of a defensive posture, focused on protecting military regimes.

“The Russians suffered very significant casualties and their military stance changed from one of trying to reconquer territory to one of protecting the regime.”, observed Cravinho.

This fragility is also reflected in the overall impact of Russian influence in the region. The withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS created difficulties for all involved, reducing the capacity for cooperation and exacerbating regional fragmentation, including for the United Nations itself, which has a major office for West Africa there.

Iran, for its part, has been trying to secure access to Niger's uranium, but faces difficulties due to international financial sanctions and has found it difficult to establish convincing relations with countries in the region, which makes it an unattractive partner.

Finally, the United States of America (USA) remains an unknown because it is not yet known what the new administration's attitude will be.

"I believe that the new administration views the Sahel region as a problematic region in terms of the proliferation of some terrorist movements, and therefore, that is the concern."

“Secondly, as a concern that will have to be managed by others, namely Europeans.”

"I believe they will see the region as one that Europeans must know how to work with, because they themselves don't believe they are particularly committed."

“At least that was the attitude of the first Trump administration”, Cravinho opined.

Finally, Gomes Cravinho stressed that the growing presence of multiple actors in the Sahel reflects "a power vacuum" in the region, aggravated by security challenges, political instability and opportunistic interests of different nations.

While China is taking a pragmatic approach focused on resource extraction, Russia is trying to use instability as a tool to increase its influence.

This power struggle, combined with the presence of other international actors, reinforces the need to develop a cohesive and proactive African strategy to ensure the stability and development of the region.